Finding value is paramount to my betting strategy. Without it you cannot hope to be in profit over the long term. Only in a small percentage of football matches do the available odds provide an opportunity for a profitable value bet, where the available odds on the eventual winner is significantly better than the true probability of that team winning. There are many possible reasons why the bookmakers and perceived wisdom of the betting crowd can get the odds wrong on occasion. Often the superiority of the top teams and star players is over estimated and the power of the team dynamic and motivational strength of the lower ranking teams is undervalued. I have developed statistical methods for finding potential value bets in European football. The stats provide me with a short list of games for further study. I will look at all the relevant factors and pre-match reports for each of these games in detail to find reasons why the available odds differ from my predictions and only if satisfied that value exists will I place a bet.

• Total tips

  1440

• Success tips

  1016

• Failed tips

  381

• Draw Tips

  43

• Total Profit

  +12196.00

• Total Stakes

  $14400

• Average Odds

  2.66

• ROI

  84.69%

• Hits Rate

  72.73%

• 160 TipsInternational
• 102 TipsEngland
• 87 TipsItaly
• 47 TipsFrance
• 47 TipsNorway
• 46 TipsIsrael
• 45 TipsBrazil
• 45 TipsSpain
• 43 TipsSweden
• 43 TipsGermany